Big 12 Preview - 11.12.05

Texas A&M at Oklahoma - Texas A&M hasn't played well since the beginning of last month. Oklahoma, for the first time that I can remember, is quietly winning--unnoticed for the most part. RB Adrian Peterson is still running and driving the Sooner offense. While Oklahoma has not exactly been dominant, they have been steady--something the Aggies can only dream of. If Texas A&M remembers how to play football again, they can beat Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Oklahoma will not let it happen, especially not at home. Texas A&M has scored a lot of points against lesser competition. Against the big boys, it hasn't found the endzone as often as it should, or at least not often enough to compensate for its horrendous defense. Oklahoma can still play some mean D, but can erratic QB Rhett Bomar take advantage of a below average A&M secondary? If that question is answered in the affirmative, and I think it will be, Oklahoma should win. Texas A&M 10 - Oklahoma 24.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State - I have a feeling that OK-state won't be quite as pumped for this game as they were for the Texas game. And, there is no way things could go as bad for TTech as they did for the Longhorns in the first half. Oklahoma State has given up an average of 43.6 points in its last five games. Bad defense, meet good offense. Texas Tech should run the score up pretty big in this one. Texas Tech 45 - Oklahoma State 13.

Baylor at Missouri - Baylor, at 4-5, needs to win out to get to a bowl game, and with Missouri and Oklahoma State left on the schedule, it's a definite possibility. The Bears have been on a slide, losing their last four after winning four of their first five. Of course, three of those losses have come to Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Business as usual, as far as Baylor is concerned. Missouri, on the other hand, had a legitimate chance to challenge for the Big 12 North, and utterly collapsed with losses to Kansas and Colorado. At 5-4, the Tigers need one more win to reach December. Considering only Baylor and Kansas State stand in their way, odds are good. This match-up is an interesting one because Missouri appears to have a lot more talent than Baylor, but Baylor, as opposed to Mizzou, seems to actually care if they win or lose. I believe this game will hinge on the success of Missouri's running game. As evidenced by the last two losses, when Missouri can't run, Missouri can't win. The Tigers had 59 yards against Colorado and only 33 against Kansas. The good news for Missouri is that Colorado (5th) and Kansas (1st) have two of the best rushing defenses in the country--Baylor (73rd) does not. Look for QB Brad Smith and RB Marcus Woods to get back on track with the Missouri offense finally waking up a bit, providing a close win over a gritty Baylor team. Baylor 13 - Missouri 21.

Kansas State at Nebraska - It seems like every team in the Big 12 needs to win this weekend for bowl eligibility. Here are two more teams to which that applies. If K-state loses, it will be staying home. If Nebraska loses, it has to pull out a win against a hot Colorado team in the season finale. In other words, the loser of this game is essentially knocked out of bowl contention. I have picked Nebraska several times this year and been disappointed each time. Last week's game against Kansas was the last straw. I really don't think the Kansas offense scored 40 without some help from Nebraska--a pick-six, a blocked punt, and 72-yard run. These things don't happen unless a team screws up. Which is, of course, good news for Nebraska because it means they aren't really that bad, they just aren't playing that well. Collectively, these two teams have lost their last seven games. Fortunately, someone gets to end that streak on Saturday. My money is on Kansas State. The Wildcats have played some very close games this year against some good teams. They lost to Texas A&M by two and Colorado by three (last second field goal). Of course, last week's game against Iowa State was embarassing, but Iowa State is playing very well right now, and Nebraska isn't. I think Nebraska might overlook the Wildcats, who are better than their record indicates and deserve to go bowling. It should be a fight to the end, and K-state needs a few gifts from Nebraska to pull this one off. Kansas State 21 - Nebraska 19.

Kansas at Texas - Yes, everyone knows that Kansas was the team that almost knocked off Vince Young and the Longhorns last year, and this year, the defense is even better. Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter, because Kansas isn't the only team that got better. Vince Young learned how to throw the ball, as well as run it. The Texas defense is also playing some great football (excluding the first half of the Oklahoma State game). If Kansas spends its time trying to contain Vince Young and stop the Longhorn rushing attack, Young will just throw over them. This game might be tight into halftime, but eventually, the Longhorns are going to start to pull away. Kansas 10 - Texas 31.

Colorado at Iowa State - If I could pick any Big 12 game to watch this week, it'd be this one. Both teams are playing much better now than they were at the beginning of the season, particularly Iowa State. Colorado's lone losses are to Miami and Texas. That's fairly respectable. Iowa State, on the other hand, doesn't really have a quality victory or even a close loss to a quality team. This is Iowa State's chance to step up and make some noise. If you also consider that a Colorado loss hardly affects the Big 12 North and that this game is being played at Iowa State, one would tend to give the edge in a close game like this to the Cyclones. Colorado 24 - Iowa State 27.