Give Florida Its Rightful Shot

Now that Florida has won the SEC and USC has fallen short in its quest for Glendale, there are two legitimate teams to chose from for OSU's playmate--Florida and Michigan. Though Michigan is more highly ranked (as of right now), voters can change this rather easily with their new ballots. I think they should. Here's why:

First, the schedule is a big factor. The computers say that Michigan has an equivalent schedule to Florida, but anybody that has watched the teams that Michigan has played and the teams that Florida has played cannot possibly agree. Florida simply has the tougher schedule. Let's compare. Florida opened the season by blasting Central Florida (4-8) and Southern Miss (8-5 division winner in Conference USA). Michigan opened by beating Vandy (4-8) (and if you watched this game, they did not look good doing it) and Central Michigan (9-4 MAC title winner). For all practical purposes, this is a push. Both teams won two games that they should have won. Florida also played Vandy later in the year and didn't look good in victory either. Push.

Florida then played five straight SEC games: at Tennessee (9-3), Kentucky (7-5), Bama (6-6), LSU (10-2), and at Auburn (10-2). The Gators, realistically, lost to Auburn by three. The defense did not give up a single touchdown in the process. There was also a questionable call that may or may not have changed the outcome of the game. I'm swallowing my Auburn pride here and admitting that the call could have just as easily gone the other way and you wouldn't have heard a (valid) complaint out of me. So, that's three highly ranked teams in a five game stretch, two of which were in very hostile environments. That's tough. Then came a bye week.

Michigan, like several SEC teams, did not have a bye week. For consistency's sake, I will still take only their next five games: at Notre Dame (10-2), Wisconsin (11-1), at Minnesota (6-6), Michigan State (4-8), and at Penn State (8-4). Notre Dame may be the most overrated team to ever get ten wins, but that's only because Wisconsin has eleven. Notre Dame should be 8-4, but, they aren't. Such is life. However, ND has been handily defeated by both teams on its schedule with a pulse (and two that were on life-support--UCLA/MSU). ND's best win is Penn State, which we must admit is in a rebuilding year. Still, ND is not horrible and Michigan blew them out. Then there's Wisconsin, a solid team that may be good, but because of its horrible schedule, we will never know. It played only two teams with winning records (Penn State and Purdue) other than the Michigan team that gave the Badgers' their only loss. Minnesota and MSU were fine, but PSU almost pulled the upset. Still, I equate PSU to UGa (both rebuilding a bit) and Florida only won that one by a TD.

So what have we learned so far? Florida has gone 2/3 against very tough teams. Michigan has gone 3/3 against a rebuilding team and two very questionable ten+ win teams. I'd give a slight edge to Florida here. Of course, if you had watched these common opponents play each other, I think Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU would beat ND, PSU, and Wisconsin.

Let's move to the rest of the schedule.

Florida's remaining games: at Georgia (8-4), at Vandy (4-8), South Carolina (7-5), Western Carolina (Div-IAA), and at Florida State (6-6). Georgia is approximately equal to Penn State, and Vandy has already been discussed. South Carolina is a much better team than 7-5, and I expect them to win their bowl game. All five losses came to teams (at the time) ranked twelfth or higher. Only one was by more than a TD. Two came down to the final play. Of those five teams, four are still ranked, three very highly, and two played in the SEC championship game tonight. That's not too shabby. Florida rolled over Western Carolina (as they should have), but you can't knock them for the schedule because of the late addition of the twelfth game. Florida was locked into this date, and Western Carolina was the only team they could get for that weekend on such short notice. Finally, ending with the Florida State rivalry is certainly not too bad, though FSU has not been that sharp this year.

Michigan's final five games: Iowa (6-6), Northwestern (4-8), Ball State (5-7), at Indiana (5-7), and at Ohio State (11-0). None of these, except for Ohio State, should have been close, and Ball State almost pulled off the upset. That's embarassing. In short, Michigan did nothing in this stretch to earn points except beat subpar teams. Then there's the Ohio State game that was not as close as the score indicates. Sure, the Wolverines did not go quietly into the night, and yes, I know it was in Columbus, but Michigan lost and gave up a ton of points. Florida definitely wins the second half here.

Championship Games

First, the SEC has one. Advantage Florida. Add another 10-win team to the list of Gator conquests. That makes 3/4 if anybody's counting. Michigan against 10-win teams is 2/3. Secondly, everybody complains about Nebraska and Oklahoma going to the BCS games after losing their conference championship games, and yet, if michigan gets let in, that's essentially what is happening again. In the game that mattered, and the last game that both teams played, Ohio State defeated Michigan. That's as close to a championship game as the Big Ten gets. Michigan needs to take it's medicine.

Arguments

1. Michigan is prettier.
Ohio State in 2002 was not pretty either. National Champs over the sexy Miami Hurricanes. That argument does not hold water. Also, factor in that Florida played teams with better defenses (check the stats; this is true).

2. Michigan lost by 3 to OSU on the road, which is worth at least 3 points.
This argument defeats itself. Michigan lost by 3 to OSU. Done. Finished. You don't get a redo for your next game. That's just dumb. It essentially negates that last game, and doesn't everyone that doesn't want a playoff always say that they don't want a playoff because it would cheapen the regular season? That's exactly what would be happening. Make the games count.

3. Florida scheduled a division I-AA school.
Yeah, see above. Not their fault, and they did what any team playing a DI-AA school would do--blew it out of the water.

So, I think this may conclude my rantings for the evening. Florida deserves a shot because Michigan already had theirs. It's as simple as that, but if you need it any clearer, read the above again. If anybody has any additional arguments or complaints, feel free to respectfully leave them below and I'll address them rather than study for finals.

WAR DAMN EAGLE!