You Can't Win 'em All

Well, 20-7 this week, (40-13, overall). At least I'm consistent. Let's review.

We'll again start with the losses.

The Biggest Upset: Kansas 13 - Missouri 3. Alright, let's see, record-setting performance against Nebraska--check. Perennial flop--check. Seems like Missouri hit all their goals early this year. Catch-phrase of the game: "Brad Smith pass--incomplete." Forteen for thirty-seven. Of course, the nine penalties for 92 yards and only 33 yards rushing didn't help either.

I Guess This Isn't the Year: Iowa State 42 - Texas A&M 14. From preseason props galore to this. Does anyone else find it ironic that Tennessee met Texas A&M in the postseason last year and both teams are now considered among the top contenders for disappointment of the year? Funny how things work out like that.

A Little Bit Short: Georgia Tech 10 - Clemson 9. So, that wasn't really the play call on 4th and 8 and the game on the line, was it? A 2-yard pass? I don't know who to laugh at, Clemson coach Tommy Bowden or senior QB Charlie Whitehurst. I hate losing a pick by 1 point, but I'd at least like to think they were trying.

I Own You: South Carolina 16 - Tennessee 15. So Spurrier doesn't have any of his own players, and he still knocks off the Vols in Knoxville. I know Rick Clausen isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse, but bringing in Ainge really didn't help. Tennessee seemed out of sync the whole game, but at least, in that regard, they are consistent. South Carolina should not have won this game, but Tennessee just couldn't put the nail in the coffin.

Its All About the Stats: Arizona 29 - Oregon State 27. Apparently Oregon State likes accumulating yards, but really doesn't care much for winning. 436 yards passing, and 654 yards of total offense. That's almost twice as many total yards as Arizona. So how could they lose, you ask? Well, six interceptions seem to slow you down. Tack on twelve penalties and a fumble and the Beavers lose to the hapless Wildcats.

Now on to the more memorable wins.

The Shoot-Out That Never Was: Michigan 33 - Northwestern 17. It was 27-17 Michigan at half-time. Where'd the offense go in the intermission? I was looking forward to a high-scoring affair coming down the last possession, ala Boise State-Louisville '04. I guess Michigan's defense had other plans.

Murphy's Law 101: Texas 47 - Oklahoma State 28. If it could go wrong in the first half, it did. Texas was not completely outplayed, but they couldn't catch a break to save their lives. In the second half, however, Vince Young cut loose, and OK State was done for. As USC before it, Texas proved it won't fold under pressure. Unfortunately, unlike USC, Texas will be penalized for it in the polls.

Okay, Coach, Is It Time to Win Yet?: UCLA 30 - Stanford 27 (OT). Ha, Stanford! You thought you could prove me wrong two weeks in a row! Look at you now!! I don't know about the rest of the country, but I'm taking a nap during the first three quarters of the USC-UCLA game.

Now for some randoms notes and rants.

1. Apparently the option pass is alive and well in college football. I watched eleven games last weekend and saw four attempts. Georgia tried a RB to QB pass. Auburn had a WR to WR pass, as did South Carolina and Clemson. What the hell? At what point do opposing coaches realize that this is becoming standard in the bag of offensive tricks. If a team has one, single trick play, this is it. I'd like to see some variety in my trickoration, personally. Bring back the Annexation of Puerto Rico!

2. Someone needs to inform officials that everyone on the field is playing football, including the kicker and quarterback. This is not two-hand touch. Roughing the passer is probably the most overused penalty in the game. I understand the importance of protecting the quarterback, but if the guy hasn't come out of his follow-through when he gets drilled, he had it coming. If he's cutting up the sideline, he deserves to be rendered unconscious. Kickers are almost as bad. They typically fall down for no reason anyways just to draw a flag, but it's getting particularly bad. In the Texas Tech-Baylor game, one player actually ran into the Baylor kicker. The kicker flops. The Texas Tech player tries to help him up, but the kicker refuses to get up, playing dead until he sees some yellow on the field. This hit had all the viciousness of a bunny rabbit. The answer--15 yrd roughing the kicker. You've gotta be kidding me.

SEC Preview - 10.29.05

SEC

Ole Miss at Auburn - Auburn is probably incredibly frustrated by the loss to LSU, particularly the manner in which it came about. Ole Miss is playing markedly better under first-year coach Ed Orgeron, especially the defense, but the offense is still struggling. Auburn is playing pretty well right now and the margin for error is gone. To have a chance of winning the West, Auburn must win. The Auburn offense and RB Kenny Irons will make sure this one doesn't come down to a field goal. Ole Miss 10 - Auburn 37.

Utah State at Alabama - This game would be a blowout if Alabama had an offense. As it is, it won't be close. Bama's 3rd string could probably still take down Utah State. With a loss to Idaho in the books, Utah State doesn't even have pride to play for anymore. Utah State 7 - Alabama 27.

Georgia at Florida (technically) - Well, with Shockley out, these offenses are roughly equal, but I give the nod on that side of the ball to UGa with its RB due of Danny Ware and Thomas Brown. However, both defenses have been tough as nails, particularly on the run. Urban Meyer's offense just isn't clicking yet, as these things take time. With Shockley, Georgia wins, but it hasn't exactly been blowing opponents away. This game may bear a lot of similarities to the Tennessee-Alabama game. Whichever team manages to find the endzone will probably win. Florida's offense, though clueless at times, has proven it can score on occasion. It should be a close, smash-mouth game. Georgia 14 - Florida 16.

Mississippi State at Kentucky - No one wants to watch this game. Seriously. But if they did, Mississippi State's awful offense would gradually overrun Kentucky's extraordinarily atrocious defense. At least Sylvester Croom has the Bulldogs playing some defense. Mississippi State 17 - Kentucky 10.

South Carolina at Tennessee - Spurrier would love to bring down the underachieving Vols. Unfortunately he just does not have the talent yet to do so. Tennessee's offense is horrible, but South Carolina's defense is not so hot either. With the loss of RB Gerald Riggs, things are certainly not getting better for Tennessee. If they get caught feeling down after consecutive losses to UGa and Bama or looking ahead to next week's trip to South Bend, this game could be trouble. It will be closer than you would think, and if South Carolina QB Blake Mitchell gets hot early, Tennessee will have a hard time clawing its way back into the game. As much as I want to pick South Carolina, I think Tennessee's defense is just barely good enough to carry its offense. South Carolina 10 - Tennessee 17.

North Texas at LSU - North Texas is 117th in total offense and 101st in total defense. Yeah, it'll be close. North Texas 6 - LSU 41.

ACC Preview - 10.29.05

ACC

Wake Forest at Duke - Does anyone really care what's gonna happen in this game anyways? Duke's defense couldn't stop my grandmother. Wake Forest 35 - Duke 10.

Southern Mississippi at NC State - At 4-2, USM has had two games postponed due to weather, but it sits atop the Conference USA standings at 3-1. NC State has been on the wrong end of a couple of tight games and simply hasn't shown up for others. They are currently in a two game slide but need to win this game to have a realistic chance of bowl eligibility. NC State has been erratic all year, but its defense will be the difference. It NC State can get pressure to USM QB Dustin Almond, he will throw picks. NC State needs to capitalize on these turnovers and use the crowd to take USM out of the game early. This should be a fun game to watch. USM 21 - NC State 24.

North Carolina at Miami - Do you think the 'Canes remember this game from last year? They won't make the same mistake twice. North Carolina 9 - Miami 31.

Maryland at Florida State - Both teams bring a sick pass defense to the table. This works in Maryland's favor, as FSU's offense relies heavily on the pass, while the Terrapins have a more balanced attack. I believe that if both teams played their best on a neutral field, I would give the edge to Florida State 60% of the time. Maryland is too inconsistent to hang with Florida State right now. After getting destoryed by Virginia Tech last week, morale may be low. Playing FSU at Doak-Campbell is not the way to regain your confidence. This will not be a high-scoring affair, so both teams should be in this game until the very end. Florida State's defense, though, is good enough that Maryland will not be able to find the endzone often, if at all. Maryland 10 - FSU 16.

Clemson at Georgia Tech - This game should be another good one. The offenses and defenses are comparable, with Clemson having the offensive edge and Georgia Tech the defensive. That should balance out nicely. GaTech was playing well until Virginia Tech blew them out on national television. They followed that up with a loss to NC State. Since the Miami game got rescheduled on account of Hurricane Wilma, the Yellow Jackets get an extra week of recuperation and preparation for Clemson. Clemson, meanwhile, has lost its three games by a total of thirteen points, and to quality teams (Miami and BC, most notably). Clemson always seems to play close games, and this one will probably be no exception. Look for Georgia Tech to start slow. Not only do they have to shake off the rust, but there is probably some let down in not playing the Miami game. Clemson should be able to take advantage of this and get the crowd out of the game early. Clemson 28 - GaTech 24.

Pac-10 Preview - 10.29.05

Pac-10

Washington State at USC - On paper this doesn't look like it'll be much of a fight. Washington state is 3-4, tied for last in the conference, and has a loss to Stanford to its credit. Yes, I'm aware that maybe Stanford has gotten better, but still. Close losses to UCLA and Cal do point out that this Washington State team can hang with the better Pac-10 teams. However, there is a great divide between UCLA and Cal, and USC. Does that mean that I don't think UCLA or Cal could beat USC? Of course not; anything's possible. USC, though, is more consistent than UCLA or Cal and won't give in even if trailing late. I would not be surprised if the Cougars hang with USC for a half, but ultimately the talent level disparity will become apparent and USC will run away with it in the second half, as they tend to do. Washington State 24 - USC 45.

Arizona at Oregon State - It is highly possible that Arizona will upset Oregon State this weekend. Arizona has looked horrible at times (see the loss to Utah) and good at times (see USC...excluding the 4th quarter). Oregon State has a win over Cal to its credit, but that was the week after Cal had its heart crushed by a loss to UCLA. Basically, the Beavers seem to win when they are supposed to, but they graciously fold to superior opponents. I think Arizona is good enough to beat Oregon State, but I have yet to see them put together four quarters of football. Hence, I must defer to Oregon State at home. Arizona 21 - Oregon State 27.

Washington at Arizona State - The Huskies have still only won one game...over Idaho. They came close against UCLA, but that game was a fluke. Washington is just not good--plain and simple. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils continue to drop games and do not seem to really care about it. Realistically, they had their shot at glory and choked. Can you really blame them? Their only hope at a good bowl game is to win out, with the exclamation point being a victory over UCLA. Though it is possible, serious questions still hang in the air surrounding the quarterback position. QB Sam Keller will start, but he is still not 100%. If ASU has problems moving the ball against the Huskies, do not be surprised if redshirt freshman QB Rudy Carpenter makes an early appearance, even just for a drive or two. His performance last week against Stanford (19 of 25, 304 yds, 3 Tds) turned some heads. Washington 21 - Arizona State 38.

UCLA at Stanford - Surprise, surprise, guess who's not jumping on the Stanford bandwagon. That'd be me. So they beat Arizona State...and? I don't think Stanford will win six games. With the remaining schedule, they may be able to knock of Oregon State...maybe. Yes, UCLA's run defense is horrible, but so is Stanford's running game and defense. Maurice Drew and Drew Olsen will both have big days as UCLA cruises to victory. UCLA 45 - Stanford 21.

Big Ten Preview - 10.29.05

Big Ten

Indiana at Michigan State - As much as I hate to do this, I'm sticking with Michigan State. Yes, the Spartans looked pathetic against Northwestern. Yes, they played with no heart. Yes, the defense was terrible. Yes, the offense struggled. But, that was Northwestern. This is Indiana--at team that is 72nd in scoring defense. That number should not improve after this weekend. If ever there was a time for Michigan State to right the ship, it's now. Indiana 17 - Michigan State 35.

Ohio State at Minnesota - Ohio State is the real deal. The defense is great and the offense is good enough. After putting a hurtin' on Indiana last week, they're ready to move back into real competition. Minnesota is a solid team, but when they play real defenses, they cannot put up the points they need to win (excluding Michigan). I don't expect this to be as bad as the 44-14 Penn State beatdown, but Ohio State should win in a defense-dominated game. Ohio State 21 - Minnesota 13.

Wisconsin at Illinois - Illinois' best win is over Rutgers on opening weekend. Of course, they only have two, so the pickins are slim. Wisconsin should roll in this one. Wisconsin 38 - Illinois 14.

Purdue at Penn State - This is a dangerous game for Penn State. Purdue is not a typical 2-5 team. They've dropped five in a row, but to a bunch of surprisingly good teams. They took it to the wire in a couple of those games. Purdue can win, that just doesn't mean that they will. Penn State is playing great football behind QB Michael Robinson. Purdue has continually come up short against good teams, and this game should be no exception. However, Purdue has the added motivation that a loss eliminates any chance of a bowl game. They may play with heart, but Penn State has much more to lose, like the Big Ten championship. If Purdue comes to play, this may be a great game. Purdue 20 - Penn State 34.

Michigan at Northwestern - This is the game of the day in the Big Ten. Michigan is playing well, so it's time to see if Northwestern is for real. Too much is being made of the blowout win over Michigan State. That was not the Michigan State team that upset Notre Dame. That was a flat, unispired group of eleven men playing like they had somewhere else to be. Northwestern played great, and certainly the Spartans' horrible performance can be partially attributed to the Northwestern defense. However, Michigan is not flat. After starting 3-3, they've showed serious heart the last two weeks in dramatic wins against Penn State and Iowa. Michigan doesn't quit, and I expect them to bring Northwestern back to reality. Michigan 27 - Northwestern 24.

Big 12 Preview - 10.29.05

Big 12

Oklahoma at Nebraska - This game hasn't been good in quite some time, but this year will be different. Nebraska has improved and Oklahoma has realized it has some serious holes to fill. On paper, I believe the Nebraska is the better team, but only slightly. Both bring great defenses to the table. Running on either team has been extremely difficult. This has potential for some good ole smash-mouth football. I think the difference is going to come in Nebraska's ability (and conversely Oklahoma's inability) to throw the football. Oklahoma is certainly not thrilled after an overtime win against Baylor, but the real question concerns Nebraka's ability to bounce back after a loss at Missouri. Oklahoma 17 - Nebraska 23.

Texas Tech at Baylor - Don't get me wrong, I like Baylor. Everyone loves the underdog. Unfortunately, I don't think the Red Raiders feel this way about the Bears. Fresh off a sound whoopin' from Texas, Texas Tech will want to work out their problems on someone. Yes, Texas Tech is not the powerhouse they wanted everyone to think they were. However, they can still score a ton of points, and Baylor can't stop them. The defenses are comparable, but the offenses are not even close. Texas Tech 35 - Baylor 20.

Missouri at Kansas - In theory, this game should not be too close. Kansas doesn't have much of an offense to speak of. Missouri, on the other hand, averages nearly 200 yards per game more than the Jayhawks. Fresh off a good win against Nebraska, Mizzou should continue to roll. Don't look for a pretty good Kansas defense to slow down the Tigers. Missouri 34 - Kansas 10.

Colorado at Kansas State - This game has potential to be a close one. Both the offenses and defenses are comparable. However, Colorado's losses have come to Miami and Texas, while K-state has lost to Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. However, Colorado didn't exactly look good in either game. Ultimately, K-state is on a two game slide, while Colorado is playing well right now. Throw in home-field advantage and the Buffs win. Colorado 31 - Kansas State 24.

Iowa State at Texas A&M - I am tempted to give Iowa State the nod, but I think Texas A&M isn't quite ready to be written off yet. A loss to Iowa State would cripple its chances for a run at the Big 12 South. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma still on the schedule, the Aggies have a chance to make some noise. They could very well be undefeated had it not been for a last minute field goal at Clemson and surprising Baylor. They seem to be forgotten in all the hooplah over Texas and Texas Tech, but they still have a lot to do with the divisional race. Iowa State doesn't have much to play for besides pride, but it has proven it can hang with solid teams. This one may be close, but with the game being in College Station, I believe QB Reggie McNeal finds a groove with the home crowd behind him. Iowa State 13 - Texas A&M 24.

Texas at Oklahoma State - This one is already over. Don't worry, you didn't miss anything. Texas 51 - Oklahoma State 10.

Thursday Preview - 10.27.05

Thursday night is a good night for football. The Alabama's, Georgia's, and UCLA's of the world are hoping the Hokies trip up. I bet the BCS is too.

Boston College at Virginia Tech - Boston College is on quite a tear this year, with its only loss coming against Florida State. However, they have yet to play a high caliber team and win. The same can be said of Virginia Tech, but I believe the way it handled West Virginia (quality Big East team), speaks volumes. VaTech is a better team than last year, and that's saying something. BC, on the other hand, has yet to prove it's much better than last year's squad. It would take an atrocious game from Marcus Vick for BC to get a win. It may be close for a half, but the Hokies defense is just too good. Tech will slowly accumulate points, but BC will be unable to close the gap. Boston College 10 - VaTech 31.

Power 22

This is the Real Analysis Power 22, ranking the top twenty-two teams according to how well they are currently playing. Why 22? Well, I had to be different.

1. Texas - No one is playing better ball than Texas. Do I think they could lose? Of course, if they didn't play in the Big 12.

2. USC - They are still a very good, dangerous team. However, a number one shouldn't have to make that many comebacks.

3. Virginia Tech - The Maryland game wasn't pretty, but this team gets a chance to show what it can do with Boston College and Miami as its next opponents.

4. Notre Dame - I'd put Notre Dame up against any team in the country right now. QB Brady Quinn is tearing up secondaries like it's his job...oh wait, it is.

5. Ohio State - The Buckeyes are a high quality team. With a couple of breaks, they could have been sitting on top.

6. Penn State - Blowing out Illinois hardly proves anything, but it probably was good for morale. The loss to Michigan stings, but Michigan is no slouch.

7. Alabama - The defense is great, but the offense is lacking. If the two come together, look out.

8. Georgia - QB Shockley won't be around for the Gators, but hopefully UGa won't need him. If backup QB Joe Tereshinski can avoid mistakes, the Bulldogs can ride RBs Danny Ware and Thomas Brown, as well as the stellar D, to a victory.

9. Florida State - The loss at Virginia was an anomaly. The offense is getting better and the defense is still pretty good.

10. Northwestern - Three good wins in a row get Northwestern the final spot in the top ten. The schedule is brutal, but if they get past Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State, they deserve some serious attention. Let's start with Michigan.

11. Wisconsin - RB Brian Calhoun is still tearing it up on the ground, and Wisconsin followed up its miracle against Minnesota with a victory over a better-than-their-record Purdue.

12. LSU - LSU's defense is solid, but the offense is still too inconsistent for the Tigers to be considered among the best. Though they won against Auburn, that game could easily have gone the other way.

13. Auburn - Auburn found a running back in Kenny Irons, who shredded the LSU defense for 218 yards. Unfortunately, they could rarely find the endzone and recievers dropped passes all night. The defense looked good, but rarely did the pressure get to LSU QB JaMarcus Russell, and twice wide-open LSU recievers dropped TD's. Throw in the poor performance by kicker John Vaughn and Auburn shows that it can play with anyone in the country, but it's not quite there yet.

14. Miami - Miami hasnt' played anyone since September and won't until it meets VaTech on November 5th.

15. Boston College - Ditto. But their date with the Hokies is this weekend.

16. Oregon - The Ducks could run the table, but a close win over Arizona has me doubting. We'll see if they have what it takes when they host Cal in two weeks.

17. Michigan - Michigan can beat any team, outside of the top three. Yes, I know they lost to Notre Dame too, but I'd like to see that matchup played best of seven. The defense is good, but the offense is still young.

18. West Virginia - West Virginia has not exactly been dominating, but by virtue of their schedule, we don't know how good they really are. Barring a fluke, they should win out, but that fluke might be South Florida, the regular season finale.

19. Fresno State - That close loss at Oregon is looking pretty good right about now. Fresno hasn't had a game decided by less than 30 points since then. They'll get their shot at the big-time on November 19th, at USC.

20. Colorado - Colorado was playing well until it met Texas, but that happens (see Texas Tech). They seem to be the frontrunner in the Big 12 North, but really, what does that amount to?

21. Tennessee - Still doesn't have an offense. Defense looked good against an average Bama offense. In short, the Vols have some work to do.

22. California - The 4th quarter collapse against UCLA hurt and the hangover led to a loss to Oregon State. Washington State played them tough, and now everyone thinks they can beat the Bears. Cal is not playing horrible football, but they better get it together before Oregon and USC roll around.

Honorable Mention: Idaho (in the spirit of the Harris Poll), Missouri, Texas Tech, and Florida.

You Can't Win 'em All

Well, 20-6 isn't bad for a first effort, but I make no excuses. I feel it is my duty to revisit some of the games from this past saturday. So here we go.

We'll start with the six losses.

The Biggest Upset: Stanford 45 - Arizona State 35. Come again? Perhaps Stanford heard me trashing them and wanted to prove a point. Keller played hurt and didn't hit 100 yards before he was pulled. The Sun Devils still haven't gotten over the USC loss. But seriously, Stanford? On a side note, anyone who thinks Pac-10 defense isn't horrible (all three of you), should be convinced after ASU gave up 45 points to Stanford, a team that couldn't muster more than 17 against UC-Davis.

Battle of the Schitzophrenics: UNC 7 - Virginia 5. Virginia, hang your head in shame. UNC is not that horrible, but you are much much better than that. Go to your room.

Battle of the Schitzo's, Take Two: Wake Forest 27 - NC State 19. Well NC State took the lead for a while there, but once again, choked. Wake is better than average in a very tough ACC, but must win out to make a bowl. With Miami still on the schedule, this seems very unlikely. NC State, meanwhile, continues its slide. After playing tight with Virginia Tech, it appears to be a shell of what it once was. It will take an upset over Florida State or Boston College for it to reach the postseason. The Wolfpack will finish this season disappointed.

Man That Would Have Been Awesome: Oklahoma 37 - Baylor 30 (2OT). So close, so close. Poor Baylor. I thought they were gonna get this one. Unfortunately, Oklahoma must have realized, "Hey, this is Baylor." At least it went down to the wire. Baylor, you're a winner in my heart, but still winless against Oklahoma.

Yeah, So My Bad: Northwestern 49 - Michigan State 14. I really thought Michigan State would get over itself (and losses to Michigan and Ohio State), to at least make a game of this. Sadly, I was disappointed. The Spartans played some seriously uninspired football Saturday. What really killed any chance was the Staton fumble returned for a touchdown. Ouch. Maybe Northwestern is for real? I'm not sold yet. Let's see how they handle Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State.

It Still Hurts to Talk About It: LSU 20 - Auburn 17 (OT). Great game. My customary period of mourning is coming to an end, so I think I can discuss it relatively objectively. First off, both teams played well. They were sloppy at times (see LSUs multiple dropped passes, two of which were in the endzone, and Auburn WRs 5+ drops). But still, there was great defense played by both and sparks of great offense. Auburn RB Kenny Irons had a monster game, rushing for 218 yards. LSU WR Skyler Green took a punt back for a TD. It was quite the exciting game. However, miscues in the kicking game cost Auburn the victory. Auburn led every major statistical category except for the one that counts. It appeared that both teams could have blown it open at any moment, but it just never happened. That's what happens when teams are young. Inconsistency runs rampant. To be quite clear, I still blame Auburn kicker John Vaughn. That's your job, man! But it is quite true that some of Auburn's play calling, particularly in overtime, was questionable. Auburn opens with a run, then passes on second and third down, with the pass nearly being picked on third down. Perhaps Tommy Tubberville forgot that his RB, Kenny Irons, had shredded the LSU defense all night. Why throw a pass on 2nd and 8? Why not run again? I know that if you're stopped for no gain, this leaves your QB in a bad spot since it is an obvious passing down, but Irons was the breadwinner. Give him the rock. I question this play calling, but I will not say it was wrong. I do not have the benefit of reviewing tape. Perhaps Auburn saw something they liked. Either way, I would have done everything in my power not to let this game come down to a kick. I have faith in John Vaughn, but after missing four field goals, he's obviously 1) not on his A-game, and 2) questioning his own ability. But alas, it was not meant to be. So where does that leave LSU and Auburn? Well, LSU now controls its own fate in the SEC West. If it wins out, including against Alabama, it will go to Atlanta. Meanwhile, Auburn must win out against Georgia and Bama while hoping that the Tide can knock off LSU. If the stars so align, then Auburn can still reach Atlanta.

Now We'll Move on to the More Notable Wins

Will the Only Legitimate Team in Texas Please Stand Up: Texas 52 - Texas Tech 17. Ouch. Well, that answers one question.

1 Pretender + 1 Pretender = 2 Losses: Mizzou 41 - Nebraska 24. Experienced Senior QB Brad Smith had a great game and the Tigers get the "W". Hmm...Nebraska exposed the same weekend as Texas Tech? Just a coincidence right?

That was Good Defense, Right?: Alabama 6 - Tennessee 3. This was another great game, and an outstanding defensive effort by Alabama. I can't wait to see what it looks like against an offense. The real test comes in three weeks against LSU.

Even Girls Can Play Football: Michigan 23 - Iowa 20 (OT). Not even being emasculated by a pink locker room can keep Michigan down. These pansies just handed Iowa its first home loss in 22 games.

SEC Preview - October 22, 2005

SEC

Arkansas at Georgia - There will be nothing pretty about this game. Georgia's tenacious run-D is gonna try and shut the door on Arkansas' 6th ranked rushing offense. That should be no problem given the 'Dawgs hardly have to worry about Arkansas beating them through the air. Normally Houston Nutt would blitz frequently, but with the poise and mobility that QB D.J. Shockley brings to the table, this will only leave the Razorback secondary exposed. Georgia's offense should score enough points for a sound victory, though, without Nutt's help. Arkansas 13 - Georgia 28.

Kentucky at Ole Miss - This is the pillow-fight of the week. Between the two of them, they can claim wins over Idaho State, Memphis, and the Citadel. Kentucky has shown life at times, as indicated by Louisville's narrow escape in the season opener. However, Louisville has since been shown to not be the powerhouse of a year ago. Ole Miss has played well recently, with Bama needing a last second field goal to pull out the victory. That is probably evidence of Bama looking ahead to this week's match-up with Tennessee rather than extra effort on the part of the Rebels. Ole Miss' offense is still inept, but its defense is looking better. Kentucky 13 - Ole Miss 17.

Houston at Mississippi State - These are the games that you hate that someone has to win. Mississippi State has a better defense, but Houston has a much better offense. The Cougars have also played tough against UTEP and Tulsa. While UTEP and Tulsa are hadly at the level of SEC competition, one could make the same argument about the Bulldogs. Houston wins in a close one because Mississippi State can't help tripping over itself. Houston 24 - Mississippi State 20.

Tennessee at Alabama - The game of the year for both teams, so far. Each has had this game circled for a long time. Tennessee has fallen from national glory as quickly as Bama has risen, evidence of the error of preseason predictions. Though continually overrated, Tennessee is still a solid team. The offense, however, needs to get on track. Neither QBs Ainge nor Clausen can put together a good, four-quarter game. RB Gerald Riggs, meanwhile, still hasn't made the splash he was expected to. The defense is sound, though hurting from the loss of DB Jason Allen. Bama is led by QB Brodie Croyle and RB Ken Darby, but has lost speedy WR Tyrone Prothro for the year. Backup WR DJ Hall is ailing as well. Fortunately, it has one of the best defenses in college football. Last week's last second win over Ole Miss was nothing more than looking ahead to this game. Alabama's defense will make Tennessee's already struggling offense look even uglier than it already does. This will not be a blowout simply because of the heart of Tennessee and a lack of explosiveness from Bama, but there will be no doubt which team dominated the game. Tennessee 17 - Bama 27.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina - As much as everyone wants to see Vandy make the postseason, they have to beat Steve Spurrier to do it. Luckily, Spurrier is surrounded by 1/20th the talent level he had at Florida. This game should be pretty close, but it is unlikely Spurrier wants his first season at South Carolina marred by a loss to Vandy, resurgent or not. Vanderbilt has dropped three in a row, but it is likely they realize they MUST win Saturday to have any chance of reaching bowl-eligibility. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have won the games they should have won (UCF, Troy, and Kentucky) and lost the games they should have lost (UGa, Bama, and Auburn). This is a game they should win. Secretly I'm rooting for Vandy, but I think it's going to be another long post-season for the Commodores. Vandy 21 - South Carolina 23.

Auburn at LSU - Auburn? Have they played a game since early September? You wouldn't know it from the media coverage, but Auburn has quietly crept up the rankings. Meanwhile, LSU has put its slip-up against Tennessee in the past, using its wins at Arizona State and against Florida to keep itself propped up in the polls. This is a true test for both teams. Auburn has been slowly developing QB Brandon Cox and trying to find some kind of a running game. They've found it in RB's Kenny Irons and Brad Lester. Unfortunately, Lester is hurt, and will most likely not play on Saturday. This puts all the pressure on Irons to keep the heat off Cox. LSU is likely to blitz early and often (and late and often) in order to force Cox to make mistakes, (see GaTech and Arkansas). To find success he will need to utilize all his recievers, including his tight ends and backs. If he gets greedy or careless, LSU will capitalize. Cox has shown poise and does not quit. However, if untimely interceptions give LSU a short field, even a talented Auburn defense will not be able to stop LSU. LSU, on the other hand, has a young QB of its own in JaMarcus Russell. He has tons of talent but has yet to find any sort of consistency. Look for LSU to pound the Auburn D-line and small linebackers with RB Joseph Addai and then go up top with WRs Early Daucet and Skyler Green. This will be the Auburn defense's first true test against a talented offense. If LSU can avoid the mistakes that plagued them against Florida, they may be too powerful offensively and defensively for Auburn to keep up for four quarters. (By nature of bias, Auburn 17 - LSU 14).

ACC Preview - October 22, 2005

ACC

Virginia at North Carolina - This game is difficult to call. On the surface, it appears the Cavs should win, particularly in light of their performance last week against Florida State. However, UNC is not as bad as it is made out to be. They played Wisconsin and NC State tough, but the Wisconsin game was early in the season and NC State is a mystery team themselves. Ultimately, UVa is going to be too much for North Carolina. The Tarheels are in the midst of a tough stretch that features Louisville (lost 69-14), Miami, and BC. It wouldn't surprise me if they knocked off at least one. Unfortunately, I do not think it will be Virginia. Virginia 24 - UNC 10.

Temple at Clemson - Ah Temple. Remind me again why you are a Division-1A team? Temple 7 - Clemson 34.

Florida State at Duke - The poor Blue Devils have yet to post a win against a D-1 opponent this year. I think Florida State's cheerleaders could get a W. Florida State 48 - Duke 13.

NC State at Wake Forest - Which NC State team will show up for this game--the one that took VaTech to the wire, or the one that lost soundly to Clemson? Clemson's no slouch, but Wake has a victory over them to its credit. Wake is headed downhill after a loss at Florida State and a close defeat at Boston College. Expect the skid to continue as NC State shows it doesn't deserve to be at the bottom of the ACC. NC State 28 - Wake Forest 24.

Pac 10 Preview - October 22, 2005

Pac-10

USC at Washington - Sleeper and then some. USC is going to demolish Washington. No second-half comeback or extra Bush-push needed for this one. Even if USC suffers some let-down from the win over the Irish, it won't be close for long. USC 41 - Washington 14.

Arizona State at Stanford - Normally, the Sun Devils would be the clear favorite and likely blow out Stanford. However, with QB Sam Keller still nursing a hand injury, the offense will probably be limited. If Keller does not play, the offense will be rather bland (at least by ASU standards). Look for more emphasis on the running game of ASU, or for that matter, any emphasis at all. Stanford is not as good as its 4-2 record would indicate, as its schedule is back-loaded with ranked teams. If Keller plays, this game should not be close. If he does not, it would take a near perfect game from Stanford (or a horrible one from ASU) for the Cardinal to pull out the victory. Arizona State 34 - Stanford 17.

Oregon State at UCLA - UCLA is undefeated for the first time in a long time, but they have had to pull some rabbits out of their hats to get there. I like a team with the ability to come back, but seriously, we get it already. Oregon State is coming off a close victory over Cal, and it has proved it can hang with good teams. Had Cal not been emotionally flat after UCLA came back in the 4th quarter against them the week before, things probably would have been different. Oregon State has shown a propensity to fall flat on its face in big games this year, having lost to Louisville 63-27 and Arizona State 42-24. It has the talent to beat UCLA, but I don't believe it has the mental toughness to do so. Look for UCLA to come out strong, hoping to avoid the necessity of another late comeback, and to counter any questions about their legitimacy. With Stanford and Arizona being UCLA's next two games, Oregon State can be certain UCLA is focused solely on this one. Oregon State 20 - UCLA 34.

Oregon at Arizona - Oregon is 6-1, while Arizona is 1-5. There's always a story behind the records, but in this case, it's pretty self-explanatory. Arizona's one claim is that they gave USC a fight, which is more than Oregon can say. Unfortunately, that fact is negated by a loss to Stanford. Oregon 38 - Arizona 14.

Washington State at Cal - This is a match-up of two teams on the slide. The Cougars have lost their last three and the Bears their last two. Both played hard in tight losses to UCLA. However, I employ the "Stanford Test" yet again. By virtue of a 24-21 loss, the Cougars prove they do not have what it takes to consistently play well. Nothing other than the UCLA game points toward Washington State having a chance here. Cal will right the ship and play like they care. In other words, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington State 13 - Cal 41.

Big Ten Preview - October 22, 2005

Big Ten

Ohio State at Indiana - Both teams are 4-2, but Ohio State's two losses have come at the hands of Texas and at Penn State. Indiana hasn't exactly lost to shabby teams either, having lost at Iowa and at Wisconsin. The primary difference here is that Ohio State came close to beating both. With Ohio State's dominate defense, Indiana should have trouble getting anything started, particularly in the running game. Great defense beats mediocre offense every time. Ohio State 24 - Indiana 7.

Northwestern at Michigan State - This should prove to be a very exciting game. Northwestern still has a chance of winning the Big Ten if it wins out and Penn State drops another game. The former seems unlikely to happen as Northwestern still has Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State to come. Regardless, it should play a major factor in the conference race. Northwestern's last three games have all been decided by five points or less, but that is unlikely to happen on Saturday. Michigan State and QB Drew Stanton are going to light up the Northwestern defense just like Arizona State did earlier in the year. Northwestern's only chance is in a shoot-out, and even then it seems unlikely it can keep up. Factoring in the home field advantage of MSU, at the end of the day Northwestern is back in the middle of the Big Ten pack. Northwestern 31 - Michigan State 45.

Michigan at Iowa - Few imagined that these two preseason top-ten teams would both be unranked come the end of October. Iowa fell victim to its frequent slow starts, and Michigan was simply disappointing. The loss at resurgent Notre Dame seemed to take the wind out of the Wolverines, and every time they start to gather momentum they lose a close one. These boys can play, if they want to. It certainly helps to have RB Mike Hart back, as well. Iowa has yet to beat any solid teams this year, and it was destroyed by Ohio State. Iowa simply cannot play with the big boys this year. Look for Michigan to ride its momentum from the Penn State victory and RB Mike Hart to a close victory at Iowa. Michigan 23 - Iowa 17.

Purdue at Wisconsin - Typical of Purdue, it looks legitimate until it plays someone with a pulse. Currently in a four game slide, Madison hardly seems like the place to break out of it. Wisconsin has been consistent all year and RB Brian Calhoun has been amazing at times. After the remarkable win last week against Minnesota, the Badgers have everything going for them. Purdue can still score some points, but its defense is going to have a hard time stopping anything Wisconsin tries. It will be closer than most think if Wisconsin takes Purdue too lightly. Purdue 21 - Wisconsin 31.

Penn State at Illinois - This game will be over early in the third quarter. Illinois is terrible. It hasn't even come close to victory in over a month. Penn State, on the other hand, is "Back," as every sportscaster and writer reminds us on an hourly basis. After the heartbreaking loss to Michigan in the final seconds, the Nittany Lions could be in danger of dropping another, if they weren't playing a scout team. Illinois comes at a good time for Penn State, and it will allow Joe Paterno to see what effect the injury to WR Derrick Williams will have. Penn State 34 - Illinois 10.

Big 12 Preview - October 22, 2005

Welcome to the Real Analysis. On this page, you'll be able to find my weekly predictions and insight at to all the major college football games, or at least as many as I can get to in a given week. I may even, on occasion, throw in random articles on the state of the game or particular observations. It already being Thursday evening, I'll try my best to get to as many games as I can.

For starters, we'll go by conference, hitting all major conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, ACC, and, of course, the SEC). Any ranked teams not from those conferences will also be included.

Big 12

Nebraska at Missouri - Though Nebraska's overall record is good, and they did everything but officially beat Texas Tech, they are currently tied atop the weak Big 12 North with Missouri and Colorado. This game may prove important down the stretch for the right to get blown out by Texas in the Big 12 Powder-Puff game. Regardless, lets get to the match-up. Both barely beat a decent Iowa State team, who's big win was against Iowa as they plummeted from the rankings. Regardless of Iowa's resurgence, Iowa State is just not that good--plain and simple. So those wins cancel out. Nebraska's only other noteworthy performance was the aforementioned loss to Texas Tech, who we still don't know is for real. Missouri, on the other hand, has not even come close to beating a quality team. This game is basically a push, but I am going to go with my gut and pick Missouri. QB Brad Smith has not exactly been the superstar he was hoped to be, but he may be enough to overcome the Nebraska defense. Experience does wonders, especially playing at home. Nebraska 20 - Missouri 24.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State - "Must Watch TV" as the battle of the cellar dwellers gets played out this weekend. Who's bottom member is weaker, the north or the south? Experience and the media say the north is weaker, but in this particular case, they are wrong. Oklahoma State hasn't even looked good winning. Iowa State has not only been tested more, but it is the better team on the whole. Oklahoma State 21 - Iowa State 34.

Texas A & M at Kansas State - Has there been a bigger disappointment than Texas A&M and Reggie McNeal? Preseason hype, heisman talk, and championships aside, Texas A&M is still a good team. Sadly, they just don't play like it. The losses at Clemson and Colorado are respectable losses, though. Kansas State has not beaten a quality team and has a 22-point loss to Oklahoma to its credit. This one shouldn't be close. Texas A&M 41 - Kansas State 13.

Texas Tech at Texas - This is the first true test of the year for Cody Hodges and the Red Raiders. If nothing else, they have proven they would go undefeated in Division-IAA. Only a gift from Nebraska keeps Texas Tech this high in the polls, and there is plenty of doubt in the football world as to their legitimacy. But honestly, that's the case every year with Texas Tech. The question before every big game is, "Can Mike Leach's offense beat the (fill-in-the-blank)'s defense?" Well I am certainly not going to buy into the hype or turn a blind eye to history. The answer is always "No." Make that a resounding "NO!" Texas Tech will score some points, but so will Texas. The only difference is that Texas will score more of them. Texas Tech 21 - Texas 34.

Kansas at Colorado - Kansas is currently at the bottom of the Big 12 North while Colorado is tied for first. Things can change, but they won't. Colorado has looked solid, with its two losses coming at #6 Miami and at #2 Texas. They didn't look particularly good in either game, but the blowout against Texas A&M shows that this team is more than enough for the lowly Jayhawks. Kansas has lost its last two after playing a close game against Texas Tech. Colorado, meanwhile, just got demolished by Texas 42-17. Kansas' slide continues as Colorado works out some frustration. Kansas 13 - Colorado 31.

Baylor at Oklahoma - Does anyone else find it funny that this may be the second best game in the Big 12 this weekend? Oklahoma has fallen off the face of the earth, and Adrian Peterson can only carry them so far. Baylor, meanwhile, has surprised many this year. They are 4-2 with close losses at Texas A&M and against Nebraska. With Peterson's ankle still ailing and QB Rhett Bomar still not finding his groove, Oklahoma could be in for a long day. Look for Baylor to gang up against the run (not that that's rocket-science against the Sooners), and force Bomar to make some plays. Baylor is playing great team football and would love the chance to kick Oklahoma while its down. Coaches have probably used as motivation the fact that they've been outscored 125-12 in their past three meetings. That stings...even if you are Baylor. Baylor 19 - Oklahoma 17.

This concludes the weekend analysis of the Big 12. Look for the Big Ten next.