Pac-10 Preview - 11.12.05

USC at California - It's really hard not to pick Cal, as they seem to be the only team that's had USC's number in the last few years. However, Cal is down a bit this year. They check in a 6-3, but at least it's a strong 6-3. They choked in the fourth quarter against UCLA, threw a pity party for themselves the following week against Oregon State, and lost a close one in OT to Oregon last weekend. I can't help but feel that this is a very strong three loss team. They are very close to being undefeated. Of course, that can be said by a lot of 1, 2, and 3 loss teams. The difference is that this three loss team can play with the big boys, at least in the Pac-10, where a defensive coordinator measures his success by how many times he can keep the opposition under fifty. Cal's offense is not what it was last year, but the same can be said of USC's defense. The secondary is clearly the weak spot for the Trojans. Although this game doesn't have the Pac-10 title on the line, these teams badly want to beat the other team. This is gonna be a game decided by who wants it more. If USC comes out flat, as it has been known to do this year, Cal will take advantage of that fact and make it exceedingly difficult for the Trojans to come back. However, we all know that USC can turn it on in a hurry, ala Texas at OK-state style. I fee like I'm going point-counterpoint against myself, but that's what happens in games like this. Each team has an answer. I hate to pick USC, because I would welcome the BCS chaos that would ensue, but I don't think either defense can stop the other offense, but Cal will stop itself more often than USC, and that will be the difference. USC 49 - Cal 38.

Washington at Arizona - Poor Washington. In all fairness, though, the Huskies have played a very tough schedule this year. Of course, so has Arizona--and Arizona almost won some of those games. The Wildcats shocked the football nation last week in upsetting UCLA, but of course, everybody was waiting for the UCLA train to get derailed. But still--Arizona wasn't expected to do it. Mad props to 'Zona. Now welcome back to reality. Get over the big win and focus. There is no reason Arizona won't win this game, unless it's still celebrating the victory over UCLA. Washington is not going to lie down just because 'Zona beat a superior team last week. Of course, it doesn't take much for Washington to lie down. If Arizona can keep down the turnovers, Washington will probably beat itself. Washington 17 - Arizona 28.

Stanford at Oregon State - Stanford is playing much better toward the end of the year than at the beginning. However, after dropping games to UCLA and USC, the Cardinal are probably out of bowl contention, barring a major upset. Oregon State needs one more win to qualify and hopes to get it Saturday. If the Beavers don't get it, they probably won't, with Oregon as the regular season finale. In short, Oregon State needs this game much more than Stanford. Offensively, the Beavers blow Stanford out of the water, but defensively, they are comparable. This would seem to give the edge to Oregon State, but they continue to be bitten hard by the turnover bug. They managed to only turn the ball over only once last week, and that trend needs to continue for Oregon State to win this game. QB Matt Moore should be able to tee off on Stanford's pass defense, which at 109th is still ahead of Oregon State's (115th). Stanford QB Trent Edwards needs to have a big game, as well. In order for Stanford to win this game, which should be a shoot-out, it needs to force Moore to make mistakes and throw picks. If that happens, Stanford can get the win. It should be close, but as usual, I'm not picking Stanford. Stanford 37 - Oregon State 43.

Arizona State at UCLA - This game had potential to be great, and maybe it still will, but few people care about it nearly as much as they would have it UCLA hadn't choked and the Sun Devils didn't display the mental fortitude of a seven-year-old girl. This game is a toss-up at this point. Does UCLA rebound? Does Arizona State find a way to win without QB Sam Keller? We'll start with question two. The Sun Devils still have a very potent passing attack, even with back-up QB Rudy Carpenter in for the injured Sam Keller. This will not be the problem. The problem will be in stopping UCLA RB Maurice Drew and QB Drew Olson. Of course, if Arizona can do it, why can't Arizona State, right? The Sun Devils' defense is pathetic in both stopping the run and the pass. Luckily, their offense makes up for it. UCLA's defense is not exactly a powerhouse, but its their rushing defense that really hurts them. Luckily, Arizona State doesn't run much. I believe UCLA's secondary is good enough to keep the Sun Devils in check so that the UCLA offense can remember what the endzone looks like. As for question one, I don't think UCLA wants to crawl back to L.A. on a two game losing streak. This team is talented, but they can't just show up in the fourth quarter and win. UCLA needs a complete performance to top the Sun Devils. Arizona State 34 - UCLA 42.

Oregon at Washington State - Washington State came within three points of beating Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona State, and within four points of Cal. Don't tell me this team isn't dangerous. The Cougars have a very balanced offensive attack and are quite capable of putting a lot of points on the board. Their downfall is that they don't care too much for defense, particularly stopping the pass. That's not good when one plays Oregon, the eighth best passing attack in Division I-A. However, Oregon ran up most of those passing totals with their now injured starting QB Kellen Clemmens. The back-ups have filled in quite well, but are not producing anywhere near the numbers of Clemmens. Oregon should win this game due to its defense and the overall difference in athleticism between the teams. Oregon's young QBs should have time to throw and exploit the weak Washington State secondary. Oregon 31 - Washington State 24.