Alabama

I'm sorry, but you don't lose that many players on defense and expect to win games the way Alabama likes to. The offense is probably going to drop off a bit initially, but it would be hard to fall below last year's mark. The offensive line is still pretty bad, the tailbacks are good, and the receivers are decent. The QB Wilson may be good, but I haven't seen much other than a Hail Mary chunk and QB sneak against Auburn. Long story short, don't expect ten wins. Bama is back from three win seasons, but it is certainly not back to the top of the SEC. They are my four pick in the West, though a three would not surprise me.

Of note, I heard someone on ESPN say that Alabama had the best offensive line in the SEC. I nearly laughed myself stupid. I believe the headline ran "Got 12?", or something to that effect. How about Arkansas? Auburn? Georgia? Hell, Vandy? Well maybe not Vandy, but I bet it's close. Alabama will fall back to average this year, and that's about it.

So here's the schedule:

Hawaii will be a fun game, and honestly, I'm not going to call it. I think RB Ken Darby will have a big day, and a WAC secondary is a great way for QB Wilson to start his Bama career. However, this will provide a good early test for the retooled Bama defense. It could go either way, but out of SEC pride, I want Bama to win. Still, I refuse to give them the game without seeing them play. Vandy and Louisiana Monroe are next, which are two easy wins. Next is Arkansas, which I think will be too much for Bama. By this point, we'll know slightly more about the Bama secondary, but not really much. Though Hawaii will throw the ball like mad, these are WAC players. SEC talent may be enough to fight off the (Rainbow) Warriors. So this is the first real test of the season for Bama, and I think they fail it. Florida is a loss, and Duke is a win. Ole Miss should be a win, but I need to see each team (especially Ole Miss) before I can pick this one. I feel the same way about Tennessee. Florida International and Mississippi State should both be wins, and the season-determining games against LSU and Auburn I must reserve judgment on. I know Bama should lose both, but these games just have a way of getting good. I'll withhold my thoughts here. So, the final record should run at best, 9-3, and at worst, 5-7. That's a lot of swing room, I know, but it's early. We'll know soon enough. If I had to guess, I'd pick close to 8-4.