First Weekend Preview

Unforunately, I no longer have the time to go conference by conference with all of the games, but I will chime in on my predictions for the games that I find to be intriguing. So, here are my picks for the interesting games, in no particular order:

California v. Tennessee

This game is a total wildcard. Everybody is riding high on Cal and RB Marshawn Lynch this year. Good for them. I just don't buy it. Cal is consistently the second or third best team in the Pac-10. Are they talented? Of course. But do they get the best talent? Probably not (see USC for that). Tennessee, on the other hand, is consistently loaded. Last year was a horrible, horrible year for the Vols. Nobody is denying that, and there was a terrible funk, for lack of a better word, over the program last year. When they hit the skids, they just kept on falling. That is exactly why this game is HUGE for the Vols. A win means a return to high expectations, but a loss may spell a long season once again. Last year was about mental toughness, in my opinion. The Vols are short on it right now. A win against Cal would give them the confidence they need to get back on top and play like a team that can win the SEC East. So, with that said, I think I'm going to take Tennessee. I feel like this is a pretty gutsy pick considering last year and Cal's hype, but Cal's best asset is Lynch, and I believe Tennessee can hold him in check. Additionally, I really like RB Arian Foster. Playing this game an Neyland helps, too. Final score -- Cal 20 - Tenn 23.

Auburn v. Washington State

This game just screams trouble. As an Auburn fan, WSU scares me to death. Here's why. Auburn is breaking in two new safeties. Granted, they are really fast and very talented, but they have zero game experience. Beginning their careers on ESPN2 in primetime has got to be intimidating. At least the fans will be on their side. Washington State, though, can throw the ball around (read: will throw the ball around). They are almost guaranteed to hit a long one during the game. That's just the way they play. They like to say they can run the ball (e.g. Jerome Harrison), but they didn't try and run in the SEC. I'd be surprised if they break 100 yards total rushing. New coordinator Will Muschamp is also a question mark, but he has a great reputation and an awesome track record. Oh yeah, and Auburn's offense should have little difficulty with Washington State. But that was a given. So my final pick-- Auburn 31 - Washington State 17.

Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech

I really hate that this game is on at the same time as Auburn/Wash. State, because I would be glued to the television. Notre Dame is majorly overhyped, and I think everyone but Notre Dame fans realize it. Hell, even some Notre Dame fans realize it. Are they good? Well, the offense is great. But the defense has zero speed. Now Georgia Tech isn't exactly blazing fast, but I believe their team speed has got to be better than Notre Dame's. So how does the match-up play out? Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson is going to have a huge day against the ND secondary, assuming, of course, that QB Reggie Ball can actually get the ball to him. I like the senior QB, playing at home, against the number two team in the country. How do you not like that? Conversely, though, GaTech does not have a proven RB to go to now that P.J. Daniels is gone. A little extra weight may be thrown on Ball's shoulders. I'm curious to see how he handles it. On the other side, how can anybody pick against ND's offense? Brady Quinn, Charlie Weiss, Jeff Samardzija (had to look that one up), Darius Walker....loaded. I think this game is going to be a shoot-out, plain and simple. In the end, Notre Dame just has more weapons than GaTech. If GaTech has a running back step up that can even get them four yards a pop, I'd take GaTech. As it is, I just don't know if they do. Hence, I take ND in a relatively close one. ND 41 - GaTech 30.

Southern Cal v. Arkansas

I have already hit on this game once, so I won't revisit long. USC has a history of sticking new players in the system and immediately generating offense (see Auburn 2003). I like a young Arkansas team with RB Darren McFadden. They control the clock, control the line, and control the game. With McFadden, Felix Jones cannot get it done alone and the speed of USC (particularly their receivers) will eventually let the Trojans run away with it. USC 30 - Arkansas 17.

TCU v. Baylor

I like this game for some reason. TCU is supposed to make a big push this year and crack the BCS. Baylor, though, has been getting better and better every year. Particularly, the defense has toughened up in recent years and held Texas Tech in check last year for most of the game. That impressed me. Of course, they only return four starters on defense. I think TCU does win this game. They come to play in openers and after last year's let down at SMU cost them big, I do not expect them to look past the Bears. TCU 24 - Baylor 10.

Florida State v. Miami

Why does everyone love FSU? Everybody says "the defense is great" and "Weatherford is coming along", but I haven't seen that. Last year, I thought the defense was nasty, until they started giving up chunks of yardage and lots of points. That bothered me. Meanwhile, I loved Miami last year. At times, they certainly looked ugly, but they put together some quarters that were pure magic. I love Miami's speed and defense. I think things settle down a bit this year at Miami, and an opening game win against FSU will do wonders. FSU 17 - Miami 21.

Toledo v. Iowa State

If this game were last year, I may pick Toledo. I saw them play in the GMAC bowl, and I loved their offensive balance. However, they lost their QB and RB. Without those key players, the offense can't hold up its defense anymore. If there's one thing that Iowa State does have, it's offense. Behind QB Bret Meyer, this offense will score tons of points. They return nine starters. They are missing only a right guard and a wide receiver. Look for them to explode against Toledo. Toledo 20 - Iowa State 41.

South Carolina v. Mississippi State

I'm gonna keep this one simple. The second year under Spurrier is better than the third year under anybody in Starkville. MSU still has no talent, and Spurrier will throw all over this defense. If the USC defense can hold its own, USC should run away with this one late. South Carolina 34 - Mississippi State 10.

Hawaii v. Bama

This game would be a fun one to watch. We'll find out right away how far back Bama's defense has slipped. I thinking, probably pretty far. Yes, Hawaii has traditionally played poorly at away games, but apparently June Jones has implemented Hawaii time for the entire trip. The team will be practicing until early hours in the morning and sleeping until early afternoon. I'm curious to see how that works. Either way, I like Hawaii's QB Colt Brennan against a depleted Bama defense. The only thing that can win this game for Bama is RB Ken Darby--and he will. The offensive philosophy of Bama will keep the clock running, but it will be balanced by Hawaii's throw-first mantra (and second and third and fourth if neccessary). I don't think that Hawaii has an answer to Darby's speed and elusiveness. Bama also has some quality back-ups. I think this game will be tight in the fourth quarter simply because of Bama's lack of explosiveness and Hawaii's propensity for it. In the end, though, Bama pulls it out. Hawaii 14 - Bama 17.

Temple v. Buffalo

Clearly, this is the best game of the day. On principle, this game should be televised. Who is going to win is totally irrelevant as long as somebody does. I'm going to pick Buffalo solely because they are my dynasty team on NCAA 2K6. And if that's not a good reason, I don't know what is. Temple 3 - Buffalo 7.

Auburn

Ah, yes, my beloved Tigers. It's hard to not see them through rose-colored glasses, particularly when they are already so good. Regardless, I will try my best to be relatively impartial.

Auburn's offense is loaded with talent: Brandon Cox, Kenny Irons, Brad Lester, Courtney Taylor, and a ridiculous offensive line. The only questions are found at receiver, obviously. If the new guys can play, great, but if they are only average, I don't think it will really matter. Auburn will lean on the run even more this year than in past years as part of Tommy's "be physical" mantra he's spouted throughout the offseason. Yeah, they'll still throw the ball, but only when they have to or when Borges is starting to fall asleep. Cox is a reliable passer and very accurate. What he lacks in arm strength he makes up for leadership. He is a steady leader (and his arm, honestly, is not all that bad). Courtney Taylor is finally healthy, so that is certainly a boost. He is a playmaker, not just a good receiver. He refuses to go down, and that's what makes him so dangerous. Then there's Irons and Lester. How good are these two? Irons has breakaway speed, hits holes like a mack truck, and isn't afraid of taking it to anybody. Lester, meanwhile, is one of the quickest players I've seen in quite some time and is the perfect compliment to Irons. Auburn can be confident that if either back is needed to be THE back on a given night, he will be. That's a nice situation to be in.

Defensively, I am a little worried. Yes, the defensive ends are great and the linebackers are solid. However, the defensive tackles are rather inexperienced, as are both safeties. The corners are a strength, as David Irons is a great lock-down corner, and Wilhite is one of the most athletic corners I have seen in quite some time. Teams that throw the ball around a lot, though, may catch our young safeties off-guard a bit. I'm sure they have the talent to play well, but there will be a learning curve, and opening against Washington State, a team that loves to throw the ball all over the place, is essentially a trial by fire.

I like Auburn to win the West, but when the match-up is relatively a draw between Auburn and LSU, who do you expect me to side with? Both teams are loaded and anything can happen. If Auburn beats LSU, this could be another 2004. If not, expect another 2005, but hopefully with a better ending.

So here's the schedule. Auburn opens against Washington State. I have been dreading this game all summer. A team with an experience QB and a great WR roll into Jordan-Hare, where Auburn has not exactly been spectacular in openers. Tack on some high preseason expectations and we have ourselves a trap game. Auburn is much more talented than Washington State, but they have to play to prove it. Auburn cannot win in a shootout. That's just not the way they get it done. I'm also worried that if Auburn jumps to an early lead that Tubs will call off the dogs early (see Alabama, two years running, VaTech in 2004). He does this and wins, but the final margin is not an indicator of the actual game. I don't really care one way or another except for the fact that Washington State, if given the opportunity, can put up some points in a hurry. If Tubs playes this one Spurrier-esque, Auburn wins easily. If he tries to sit on a lead, I'll be nervous until that last second ticks off the clock. Next up is Mississippi State. Auburn easily wins this one. LSU then rolls into town, and as I've already discussed, this will be a great game and could go either way. I think Auburn is slightly better, but I am very worried about the secondary. Buffalo is an easy win, but then the Tigers have to go to South Carolina. I am only worried about this game because of how badly Auburn crushed South Carolina last year. If the Tigers think they are going to win as easily this year, they are mistaken. QB Blake Mitchell will actually be playing in this game, for one, and he will be in his second year of Spurrier's offense. I think Auburn is still too talented for the Gamecocks, but Auburn has to show up and play the way they can. Arkansas is another interesting game. Yes, Auburn is more talented, but Arkansas has a couple of stud running backs and has historically given Auburn fits. They seem to always be good for about 14-17 points a game. I think Auburn can score more than this, so I'm giving them the nod, but I certainly do not want to miss this game, and I pray that it is somehow miraculously picked up nationally so I can watch it from Wisconsin. Florida comes to Jordan-Hare the following week, and they will leave with a loss. Without a running game to speak of, Auburn's defense will tee-off on Chris Leak. I refuse to believe the spread option will work in the SEC. Also, though Florida's defense is supposed to be good, Auburn's offense is simply that much better. If Auburn drops 20, they win. Tulane, Ole Miss, and Arkansas State should all be easy wins, but it's possible Ole Miss may put up a fight. We'll see how that goes later on in the year. The final two games are against UGa and Bama. Both teams have gotten worse in the offseason, and Auburn has gotten better. I have to give the initial nod to the Tigers, who beat both teams last year. If Auburn can stop the run, neither team has much else to rely on. So, the final tally could run from 12-0 (possible, but I wouldn't put my money on anyone in the SEC running the table) to 10-2. Over two losses would be a very disappointing regular season for Auburn, because as one sportswriter put it this summer, "the road may never again be as clear." I won't say never again, but it seems like this may be Auburn's year.

LSU

I'm not quite sure why everybody seems to have written LSU off this year. Sure, they lost a lot of starters, mostly on the lines, but they're still LSU. Saban's recruits are still there, and Saban does not recruit poorly. It's not like LSU is starting true freshmen on the lines or anything. They will still have loads of talent, but they just don't have any game experience yet. Opening up against patsy UL-Lafayette should help some in that department. Other than this obvious weakness, here is what LSU has going for it:

One of the best secondaries in the SEC. Safety LaRon Landry has made nearly every pre-season All-American list that I've seen. With fellow returning starters Jessie Daniels and Chevis Jackson back there as well, LSU will make it tough to throw the ball. This, of course, is good, considering running the ball against the Bayou Bengals probably got a little easier this year.

One of the most talented backfields in the SEC. RBs Alley Broussard finally returns healthy to LSU's playing rotation. This guy can play, it's just been so long, everybody has forgotten. I'm curious to see how he comes out of the gate after being out for an entire year. In the backfield with him is QB JaMarcus Russell. I wish LSU fans would quit their whining about JaMarcus. There is no QB controversy because JaMarcus is almost there. He's got a gun for an arm, decent mobility, and he's a giant among QBs. Yes, he will miss some throws, but you never have to worry about him not being able to make the throw. A perfect example was his touchdown pass at the end of the Arizona State game. Rolling to his left, he fires it 40ish yards to the endzone. That's some arm-strength. When his accuracy catches up to his potential, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Fast, fast, fast, fast wide receivers. Man, they can fly. I'm glad LSU's receivers had trouble catching the ball last year because once they do, nobody else is going to catch up to them. Craig Davis, Early Doucet, Dwayne Bowe, and Xavier Carter all have some serious jets. If JaMarcus can get them the ball (and they can hang on to it), the offense will find the 'click' it was missing all of last year.

Before I get to the schedule, I have got to note that everyone is giving the SEC West to Auburn. Now I am a die-hard Auburn fan, but seriously, has anyone watched these games the last two years? Both teams are loaded with talent. Auburn has more experience in most places, but not in the secondary, which could present problems against a very fast receiving corps. I'll speak more to this match-up in a few weeks, but I am not about to hand the West to Auburn. The winner of this game, though, should win the SEC title.

So here's the schedule. The opener is against UL Lafayette, which is an easy win. Next comes Arizona, a team that everyone seems pretty high on to start this year. Most media members love QB Willie Tuitama. Yeah, he put up some decent numbers out west at the end of last year. I don't expect him to do so in Death Valley. LSU, in general, is far more talented than Arizona and should have no problem dispatching of them. The Auburn game is next and could go either way. Tulane and Mississippi State are both easy wins, but then LSU has to go to the Swamp. Of course, it doesn't really feel like the Swamp since Spurrier left, but that's a discussion for another day. I like LSU in this game simply because I have yet to see Urban Meyer work magic in Gainsville. He has plenty of talent, and yes, this is year two. However, he has no running game, and Chris Leak is not his QB. I don't care how high anyone is on Florida, LSU and Auburn are the class of the SEC this year and will own the East. Kentucky is a win, and Fresno should be a win. If Fresno was returning QB Paul Pinegar, I'd give them a fighting chance. Without him, they lose pretty badly. The Tennessee game is next, and I don't want to call this one yet because of how late in the season it is. About a thousand different things could happen by this point in the season. However, I feel obligated to stand by my assertion that the East will be Auburn and LSU's whipping boy this year, so I'm giving LSU the win. Tennessee QB Erik Ainge would have to turn into Peyton Manning overnight for the Vols to win this one. Next comes Alabama, and I really think LSU has their number. Both teams probably took a slight step back this year, but LSU retains much more of its talent than Alabama did. If LSU's offense clicks, which I think it will by this time in the season (of course, I thought that would happen last year), Alabama should present no difficulty. Ole Miss and Arkansas are next, and LSU should win both. However, there's no telling what could happen at either school. Ole Miss has a totally new and improved offense and Arkansas almost knocked off LSU last year. In theory, LSU wins both, but I can't make that a completely solid pick. So, LSU's season should range from 12-0 to 9-3. I really think LSU would have a great chance to run the table except that Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida are all away games. A loss at Tennessee or Florida wouldn't blow my mind, but at this point, I'm still picking LSU in both.

Auburn may be getting all of the attention in the national media, but LSU can change all that on Sept. 16.

Odds and Ends

Only one more week until football season is truly upon us! My how time flies. I'm pretty stoked about this year because nobody should run the table. At least, nobody is expected to run the table. This should be fun.

So here are my thoughts on the preseason polls. Texas, USC, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, West Virginia, Louisville, Auburn...have I left anyone out? Even if I have, it doesn't really matter. These teams are virtually interchangeable in any poll. I'm not going to dispute any preseason ranking of the top ten teams, and here's why. For every team up here, I can probably give you about five good reasons why they will not run the table. None of these teams is a frontrunner. Now if I had to pick the "best" teams out of this group, I'd say Ohio State and Auburn. I say this by virtue of having an offense, a defense, and no giant holes. However, the clear-cut favorite to win it all (at least in my book) is West Virginia. Can you say one-game season? I'm having flashbacks to the 90s FSU teams. Play someone worth a damn during the regular season and then you can pretend to be national champs. I give you marginal respect for beating UGa in the Sugar Bowl, but try winning out with a schedule that includes 3 to 4 teams just like that every year. You just can't do it. Sorry. So, I'm putting in my vote right now. If West Virginia wins the national championship, I'm never watching a Big East game ever again (not that anybody watches Big East games anyways, but it's the thought that counts).

In short (too late), I'm looking forward to a wide-open season where there is sure to be ten-thousand different opinions on who's the best. Bring it on!

Florida

I'm not a believer yet. Urban Meyer preyed on a weak SEC East last year and still couldn't get to the SEC Championship. Now maybe "weak" is a bit strong. UGa was a great team. Outside of UGa, though, (and Kentucky), there was a lot more parity in the East. Vandy was surprising, as was USC, and Tennessee slipped. If there was a time for Florida to rise above it, last year was it. Instead, the offense sputtered around all year. Without a solid running back going into this season, I can't be a believer. Undoubtedly, though, Florida has the best chance of winning the East simply by virtue of a senior QB in Leak, immense talent everywhere, and a stout defense. Unfortunately, though, the Gators draw LSU, Auburn, and Bama from the West. Ouch. It's possible they could run the table in the East and still miss out on the big game. That certainly would be unfortunate. I consider these Gators an experiment. Meyer's offense will either do the SEC what Spurrier's offense did, or it'll die. It's that simple. Either it works or it doesn't. Here's year two. Let's see what you got.

Here's the schedule. The openers are against Southern Miss and UCF. These games are very dangerous. If Florida's offense sputters, either team has enough talent to give the Gators a scare. These are not MAC teams. They can play ball. I'll assume Florida can handle them, but there is little room for error in these two games. The third game of the year is against Tennessee, and there's just no way to tell at this point. Kentucky and Bama are next and I'm marking both of those as wins for the Gators. Kentucky sucks and everyone at Florida remembers last year's Bama game. UF won't stop until they hang 40 on Bama. I don't blame them. Now comes murderers row. LSU, Auburn, and UGa. Ouch, ouch, ouch. At this point, those games could go either way, but I'm tempted to say LSU and Auburn both win their respective clashes. Those two teams have all the right pieces. Either way, I'll certainly be glued to the TV for three straight weeks. Vandy, South Carolina, and Western Carolina are all relatively easy wins before heading into the finale with Florida State. Everyone seems to love FSU this year, but I don't understand how they are going to get miraculously better overnight. Last year just wasn't that good. Sorry. I didn't want to have to be the one to break that to you. But it's the truth. Florida will be better. I'd give the initial edge to Florida, but I won't call it yet. So Florida runs from 10-2 (damn impressive with this schedule) to 7-5 (honestly, not horrible with this schedule). I'd expect somewhere near the top end, but we'll know by the Tennessee game if Meyer's Gators have made the expected year-two jump.

An Aside

What is this guy smoking?

"5. The SEC season will start with a bang on Thursday, Aug. 31, when Mississippi State beats South Carolina in a nationally televised game (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET), dropping Spurrier's record to 0-3 in Starkville, Miss. The Bulldogs will be another SEC team on the cusp of qualifying for a bowl game and might have to beat Alabama, coach Sylvester Croom's alma mater, in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Nov. 4 to do it."

Mark Schlabach covers college football and men's college basketball for ESPN.com. You can contact him at schlabachma@yahoo.com.

Come on. Is there an off chance--sure. Any given Thursday, or something like that. But where does he see this improvement in Mississippi State coming from? Well, in one week, I may be eating my words, but I think this guy has a few screws loose.

Georgia

No more David Greene and no more D.J. Shockley. What now? Tereshinksi III. Right. Somehow, I feel there's going to be a drop-off. However, the RBs are all still there and are all very talented. The offense in general is great. The Dawgs could stand to have another go-to receiver, but Mohamed Massaquoi (had to spell-check that one) is beginning to step up. The greatest loss (other than at QB) for UGa's offense is the loss of TE Leonard Pope. He was a beast. Just throw the ball up and you've got a reception. But again, this is UGa. Mark Richt knows how to recruit, so I doubt there will be too great of a drop-off. If Tereshinski is a serviceable quarterback, there is no reason UGa cannot hang with every team on its schedule. I have a feeling that there is no way Tereshinski is as good as Greene or Shockley, but I refuse to judge the kid based on his showing against Florida, where Richt really only gave him permission to hand the ball off. Let's see what he does after getting some practice reps as the starter.

Defensively, yes, UGa lost some star power. But again, they are UGa. Richt brings in quality players and once the newcomers have a few games under their belt, they'll be just fine. My ultimate pre-season analysis of UGa comes down to this: They are solid, talented team without much star power. These are the teams that creep up on people. The Dawgs are dangerous.

Here's the schedule. Western Kentucky is a win. I'm going to call South Carolina a win. My reasoning is that South Carolina's defense is still not that great, despite a decent offense. UGa's secondary will be tested, certainly, but the Dawgs will out-talent Spurrier's gamecocks, and the coaching is a draw. Hence, the scale tips to UGa. UAB is a win, but we'll see about Colorado. With a new coach in Boulder, I want to see what Dan Hawkins does the week prior against Arizona State. Then I'll make the call. Most likely, though, I'm giving this one to UGa. Ole Miss should be a win, but I reserve judgment on the Tennessee game for obvious reasons. Vandy and Mississippi State are both wins, but I again cannot call the Florida game yet. What's the point? There's a lot of ground to cover between now and then. Kentucky's a win and Auburn is a loss. I know, lots could happen, and I am probably biased. However, Auburn beat a UGa team last year that was better on both offense and defense. Auburn's defense I expect to be tougher this year (despite questions in the secondary) because of new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, and the offense will not miss a beat (barring injuries). In light of this, I have to give the nod to Auburn. The finale for UGa comes against rival GaTech. I can't call this one either. On paper, UGa wins, but everybody knows that. However, GaTech has Calvin Johnson and a senior QB playing his last game against his rival. You know Reggie Ball wants this one bad. I'll make this call a couple of days before the game. So, at best, UGa goes 11-1, and at worst 8-4. I think nine wins is certainly doable and ten wins possible, but running the table would earn Mark Richt Coach of the Year honors.

Alabama

I'm sorry, but you don't lose that many players on defense and expect to win games the way Alabama likes to. The offense is probably going to drop off a bit initially, but it would be hard to fall below last year's mark. The offensive line is still pretty bad, the tailbacks are good, and the receivers are decent. The QB Wilson may be good, but I haven't seen much other than a Hail Mary chunk and QB sneak against Auburn. Long story short, don't expect ten wins. Bama is back from three win seasons, but it is certainly not back to the top of the SEC. They are my four pick in the West, though a three would not surprise me.

Of note, I heard someone on ESPN say that Alabama had the best offensive line in the SEC. I nearly laughed myself stupid. I believe the headline ran "Got 12?", or something to that effect. How about Arkansas? Auburn? Georgia? Hell, Vandy? Well maybe not Vandy, but I bet it's close. Alabama will fall back to average this year, and that's about it.

So here's the schedule:

Hawaii will be a fun game, and honestly, I'm not going to call it. I think RB Ken Darby will have a big day, and a WAC secondary is a great way for QB Wilson to start his Bama career. However, this will provide a good early test for the retooled Bama defense. It could go either way, but out of SEC pride, I want Bama to win. Still, I refuse to give them the game without seeing them play. Vandy and Louisiana Monroe are next, which are two easy wins. Next is Arkansas, which I think will be too much for Bama. By this point, we'll know slightly more about the Bama secondary, but not really much. Though Hawaii will throw the ball like mad, these are WAC players. SEC talent may be enough to fight off the (Rainbow) Warriors. So this is the first real test of the season for Bama, and I think they fail it. Florida is a loss, and Duke is a win. Ole Miss should be a win, but I need to see each team (especially Ole Miss) before I can pick this one. I feel the same way about Tennessee. Florida International and Mississippi State should both be wins, and the season-determining games against LSU and Auburn I must reserve judgment on. I know Bama should lose both, but these games just have a way of getting good. I'll withhold my thoughts here. So, the final record should run at best, 9-3, and at worst, 5-7. That's a lot of swing room, I know, but it's early. We'll know soon enough. If I had to guess, I'd pick close to 8-4.

Arkansas

Who doesn't like Arkansas this year? It seems every sportswriter has jumped on the bandwagon as "Watch this team!" and "McFadden is a badass!". Well, they are half right. Arkansas will be much better this year and McFadden, minus the pin in his toe, will be a badass. However, don't expect them to win the SEC, or even the West--at least not yet. I noted that this team was very young and getting much better prior to the LSU game, and they nearly pulled the upset. I love it when I'm right.

I still like Arkansas--don't get me wrong. But they are still young, and they are not in the same league as Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Florida, or even Tennessee, at least not talentwise. Of course, with "any given Saturday" as your mantra, this is a good team to pick. If someone goes into this game sleeping or with an uncoordinated offense (e.g. LSU of last year), then Arkansas may give them a game.

Here are my thoughts on the schedule. The opener against USC is winnable with McFadden. Without him, USC will out-talent Arkansas for the win. I certainly do not expect a seemless offensive transition from Bush, White, and Leinart to whoever the hell is in the backfield this year. However, USC is known for doing just that (see 2003 Auburn/USC opener). The margin for error for Arkansas is slim, and USC's receivers will be tearing through the Hogs' secondary all day. The question is, can anyone get them the ball? I think yes. With McFadden, Arkansas has an explosive back and the ability to control the clock (read, keep USC's offense off the field). Since he thought a bar fight was more important than football (come on, it was 4:30 a.m.), the Hogs lose. Utah State and Vandy are next, who should provide a nice pick-me-up for Arkansas. Alabama then comes to town, and I like the Hogs in this one. McFadden should be back, and Alabama will probably be leaning on its running backs non-stop. If Arkansas can stop the run, I don't think a re-personneled Bama defense can keep the Hogs out of the endzone. It should be a good one, but I like Arkansas at home. The Auburn game should be a loss, but I've never felt safe playing the Hogs. It's as though they are a given for 17 points anytime they play Auburn. That scares me a bit. However, Auburn should pull away in the third quarter. Southeastern Missouri State is a gimme win, but then comes an interesting game against Ole Miss. I refuse to call this one yet because I want to see 1) how Arkansas played against Bama and Auburn, and 2) how Ole Miss has fared. Ole Miss does a decent job against the run usually, and QB Schaeffer provides some offensive spark. We'll see how this goes. As of now, I think Arkansas takes it, but I'm reserving my final judgment for a few weeks. Louisiana Monroe is an easy win, and then the Hogs go to South Carolina. Spurrier is a genious, but this game could go either way. I reserve judgment. Tennessee, Mississippi State, and LSU round out the schedule. Because of the question marks with Tennessee, I won't comment on that one yet, Miss. State is a win, and LSU is most likely a loss, but we'll see. So the final results: At best, 9-3, and at worst, 6-6. Welcome to the postseason.

Tennessee

Last year was crap. I don't know what that was all about. I don't know how much I buy David Cutcliffe as the savior of Erik Ainge, but I guess we'll see. Until that opener against Cal, Tennessee is a giant mystery. I like RB Arian Foster, and Tennessee always has athletes, so a spring back to the top is not out of the question. As I mentioned to one friend, the Vols could win the East. South Carolina's not there yet, Kentucky and Vandy are Kentucky and Vandy, Florida's offense may act like it did last year, and UGa has no proven QB. Now's the time to bounce back. So here's a look at the schedule:

The opener against Cal is a HUGE game for this program. They need this win like I need ramen. The Vols are every bit as talented as Cal, but will they play up to that potential? That's the question of the year for this team. Playing in Knoxville, I think Cal gives Tennessee fits. At this point, though, this game is impossible to call. On paper, Cal wins, but it Tennessee plays like it can, it can win this game. Time will tell. Air Force should be a win. My forecast for the Florida game will depend how both teams play in the two weeks prior. I'll get back to you. Marshall and Memphis are both wins. The Georgia game is also too close at this point. I'll get back to you. Tennessee should beat both Alabama and South Carolina, two teams that hit them while they were down last year. The Vols kick both of them in the face this year--unless they have already lost to Cal, Florida, and Georgia, in which case the pity party make them ripe for the pickins. LSU is a loss (last year was a fluke), and Arkansas will give them fits. I can't call the game against the Hogs this early. Vandy and Kentucky, though, are both wins. I don't care what happened last year. So, I'm not gonna tally up the scores, because there is too much up in the air for this team.

Ole Miss

Now that I've gotten those worthless teams done with, I can move on to some more interesting topics. First, we have Ole Miss. Ed Orgeron really has this team headed in the right direction, and I was definitely impressed with his recruiting. Getting QB Brent Schaeffer to Ole Miss will have a huge impact on the Rebs, and apparently every sportswriter commenting on Ole Miss believes transfer RB Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis is the next coming of Barry Sanders. Count me among the disbelievers. However, if he is half as good as everyone thinks he is (or wants to believe he is), Ole Miss' offense will be vastly improved. Duel-threat QB + decent RB = more wins than last year. The defense was surprisingly stout last year, and this year probably will not be any different. If the offense can establish possession for longer than thirty second intervals, the defense may be able to hold up deeper into games, as well. In short, Ole Miss is not there yet, but they will be a player and may well knock some people off that they aren't supposed to.

Here's the schedule breakdown, rather quickly.

Memphis should be a win for the Rebs, but the Missouri game should be good. Even after losing QB Brad Smith, most college football analysts think Missouri got better. If Ole Miss can win this one for the SEC, that may prove at the end of the season to be a nice knotch in its belt. As I have seen neither team play yet this year (or even scrimmage for that matter), I can't pick a winner. Kentucky should be a win. Wake Forest is next, and though this game may prove intersting, it's another opportunity for the SEC to make some out of conference noise. Yes, it's just Wake, but a win over the ACC is a win over the ACC. So take it. Wake tends to rely heavily on the run, and if there's one thing that Ole Miss was good at last year, it was stopping the run. With that in mind, I think Ole Miss has a great chance in this one, and I think they'll pull it out. Georgia is a loss, and Vandy is a win. The next two games are two close to call. For Alabama and Arkansas, I'll get back to you. Auburn is a loss, Northwestern State (who the hell is that?) is a win, LSU is a loss, and Miss. State should be a win. Your final tally: Ole Miss will fall between 9-3 (their "perfect" season) and 5-7. They have a lot of swing games. I'll narrow it down as the season goes on.

Vanderbilt

Even with Jay Cutler, Vandy could not make it to a bowl game. What the hell. Middle Tennessee State? I mean, come on. Were you even trying?

This year, Vandy will fall back to the bottom of the SEC, instead of being right behind the middle of the SEC. It's a fine line, but they walked it last year. This year, they will return to being the Vandy we all know, love, and can count on to lie down.

Kentucky

Kentucky sucked last year, and they still do. Next.

Side Note: Buffalo

No, this is certainly not a preview of Buffalo. They will suck. End of story.

This is rant. I am playing my Dynasty on NCAA 2k6 with Buffalo. Started out ranked 86th. Ran the table (12-0). Yes, I play in the MAC, but my out of conference included Alabama, LSU, and Notre Dame. I climbed to number two in both polls, receiving almost as many votes as the team in first. According to the BCS, though, I am .001 points out of second. What is it with my teams going undefeated and locked out? Am I jinxed? Both teams ahead of me have 2 losses. I'm the only team in division 1-A that has fewer than 2 losses. And to top it all off, I did it running Navy's offense. Stupid BCS.

South Carolina

Will South Carolina be a better team this year--definitely. Will they win more games--probably not. Spurrier won several games that he shouldn't have last year, and that's why he gets the big bucks. However, the teams he took advantage of won't make the same mistake twice. South Carolina is a sleeper pick that could make some noise, especially in an SEC East with a lot of questions. But South Carolina just isn't there yet either; though, unlike Miss. State, the Gamecocks actually have a chance of making it to the upper tier as long as Spurrier is there.

So on to the schedule. They open with a win at Miss. State, and then Georgia comes to town. We'll see just how big of a fall-off there is from Shockley to Tereshinski. I'm not calling an upset because, quite frankly, UGA is always stacked. In a shootout, though, the Gamecocks have a chance. Georgia's defense (those members not suspended) need to make a statement early. If they do, they win this one without too much of a fight. Wofford and and FAU are both easy wins, but then they get Auburn. Hypothetically, if this game were played a week earlier and Auburn was coming off a loss to LSU, South Carolina would have a chance of an upset. As it is, Auburn tunes up with Buffalo first. Shouldn't be close, but we'll see. Kentucky and Vandy should both be wins, but then you get Tennessee. At this point, I refuse to pick a team. I think the Vols should win this game, but we'll know just how much they've rebounded after their first game against Cal. Maybe then I'll actually make a solid choice. We'll see. Arkansas is next, and that game spells trouble. I like the Hogs this year. Should be a nice dogfight. Air vs. Ground. Let's see it. Too close to call at this point. Florida is a loss, but Middle Tenn is an easy win. The season finale against Clemson is too close to call again. Everybody is jumping on the Clemson bandwagon, but I haven't seen them play a snap, so I'm not gonna make a pick yet here either. Final tally--South Carolina could range from 6-6 to 9-3. If I had to guess, I'd err closer to 7-5. On paper, they win 6, but with Spurrier, they are almost guaranteed to win one that they shouldn't.

I am very curious to see what happens at QB this year. Yes, they have Blake Mitchell, but they also have Chris Smelley, a Spurrier recruit. I'm sure that as long as they have Mitchell, they'll play him and let Smelley learn the system, but Spurrier QB's have a history of success that has to make me wonder if we won't see Smelley in a few series relatively early in a few games against inferior opponents, just to see how he handles it. Should be an interesting next few years. Honestly, I wouldn't complain if Spurrier changed the name of South Carolina to Florida East. I'd like to see them at the top, but primarily, on par with Georgia, Florida, and (excluding last year) Tennessee.

SEC: Mississippi State

I'll start by going team by team in a quick overview and then I may or may not give my overall thoughts. We'll see how I feel.

Mississippi State - I've already broken my first rule by talking about a team I don't really care about, but maybe that's not true. If nothing else, I do feel bad for Sylvester Croom. He loses Jerious Norwood and now he truly has nothing. The offense cannot possibly be better after losing Norwood, and the defense, though slightly above average, will ultimately give out every game. Simply put, they aren't there yet, and they don't appear to be getting any closer. I was thinking about Mississippi State the other day and if they will ever be good again. As cyclical as college football is, I want to say yes, but when you add "and run a clean program," I have to think not. Jackie Sherrill had some winners in there, but I certainly wouldn't call his program clean. Of course, you'd have to offer me a lot to voluntarily commit to four years in Starkville.

So here's a look at their schedule. They open with a loss to South Carolina and it is followed closely by a loss to Auburn. No shame in that. Tulane and UAB are both winnable games, but after the Maine fiasco, I make no promises. LSU and West Virginia are definitely losses. What sucks most about that is how many people will simply note that West Virginia beat down another SEC team. Don't even get me started on how wrong that statement is. They should beat Jacksonville State, but a win at Georgia is out of the question. I don't care who's playing QB for Georgia, it's gonna be a long day for Mississippi State. Kentucky is up next, and in all honesty, State's best chance at winning an SEC game. Unfortunately, I don't think it's gonna happen. Kentucky shows signs of life every once in a while and has a quality back in Raphael Little, but Mississippi State is completely flat-lining. Again, this is incredibly early, so we'll see. Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss are all losses. State honestly may have the best chance against Bama, since Bama has an unproven quarterback and relies heavily on the run game. State's run defense is usually pretty decent, so if Darby can be contained, the predominance of the running game will eat clock and keep it close. I still think Bama eats them for dinner, but we'll see. State and Ole Miss are usually pretty close, but Ole Miss' defense is better than State's, and Ogeron has made an effort on offense. That will be the difference. So, my rough, preseason prediction: 3-9.

Ha, so I broke another rule. Don't hold me to it.

It's Go Time

I apologize for my lack of posts this summer, but honestly, I think every major network did a decent job of running into the ground any story invovling suspensions, stupidity, and the like. Combined with that fact, I was working full-time. So excuses aside, I now begin to take my first look at this year's teams.

As a slight disclaimer, I am going to point out that I have not been to any team practices, so naturally everything I get is second hand. Secondly, most sports writers feel the need to inject their "feelings" into stories about how good a team is going to be, but this makes their information a bit more unreliable. Hence, I am simply going to say what I think about each team and their chances going into the season, but you certainly are not going to nail me down into a win/loss prediction this early in the season. I will begin to post my predictions for games, but expect my "predictions" to be a bit off early on until I get some major football TV time under my belt. So, with those caveats behind us, I will begin looking at teams from the SEC, and then progress down to conferences as I feel like, only talking about teams that I honestly care about and have some sort of opinion other than "Well ESPN says they'll be good." So check back with greater frequency as football season approaches.